《保险研究》20190306-《经济政策不确定性对人寿保险需求的影响》（刘威、许靖沂）

［摘   要］根据背景风险理论推测,经济政策不确定性作为一类不可保的宏观政策风险,可能对保险需求变动产生影响。本文利用Baker等(2013)测算的中国经济政策不确定性指数,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对中国各省人寿保险需求变动的影响,以及在不同异质性条件下的影响差异。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性对寿险需求有显著正影响,且其在经济周期的不同阶段存在显著差异；第二,教育水平的提升会一定程度促进经济政策不确定性对寿险需求的正影响；第三,经济政策不确定性对不同类型寿险需求的影响存在差异,具有保障功能的普通寿险和投资收益灵活稳健的万能险需求受到显著正影响；最后,经济政策不确定性对人寿保险保费增长的影响主要集中在新单保费。因此,政府部门应在保证经济政策连贯性的同时,提升民众的教育水平和避险意识,引导其主动购买保险,尽量降低政策波动产生的影响,分类推进不同类型人寿保险市场的扩大。

［关键词］经济政策不确定性；人寿保险需求；异质性效应

［基金项目］教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目(18YJA790055)；教育部人文社会科学基金重大攻关项目(18JZD034)。

［作者简介］刘威,武汉大学经济与管理学院世界经济系副教授,博士；许靖沂,武汉大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生。

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Demand for Life Insurance

LIU Wei,XU Jing-yi

Abstract：According to the background risk theory,economic policy uncertainty as an uninsurable macroeconomic risk may have an impact on insurance demand.Using the China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index measured by Baker et al.(2013),we investigated the impact of economic policy uncertainty on demand for life insurance at the provincial level,and the differential impacts under different heterogeneity conditions.The results suggested that,first,economic policy uncertainty had a significant positive impact on life insurance demand,and there was significant differences at different stages of the business cycle.Second,the improvement of education level promoted the positive impact of economic policy uncertainty to a certain extent.Third,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on demand for different types of life insurance was different.The impact on demand for general life insurance with protection function and universal insurance with flexible investment returns was significantly more positive.Finally,the impact on growth of life insurance premiums mainly lied with premiums from new policies.Therefore,while ensuring the coherence of economic policies,the government should raise residents’ education level and risk aversion awareness,guide them to take the initiative to purchase insurance so as to reduce the negative impact of frequent policy fluctuations,and promote the development of different types of life insurance market.

Key words：economic policy uncertainty;demand for life insurance;heterogeneity effect