《保险研究》20190708-《税延政策真能刺激养老保险市场需求吗？——基于累积前景理论的模拟分析》（王晓军、詹家煊）

［摘   要］在人口老龄化背景下,构建多层次养老保障体系,大力发展商业养老保险成为我国养老保障体系建设的重要任务。一般认为,税收激励能够有效促进商业养老保险的发展,基于此认识,我国开始试点税收递延型商业养老保险。然而一些研究表明,税延政策未必能带来实际的市场需求。本文基于行为经济学中的累积前景理论,在养老保险价值模型中加入个人对税延的主观价值评判,分析个人对税延养老保险的需求。研究发现：公平型和福利型税延养老保险对个人的吸引力大于非税延养老保险；我国当前较低的税优水平很难激励人们购买商业养老保险；只有当税优水平足够高时,才能有效刺激年金市场的实际需求。

［关键词］个人税收递延；商业养老保险；累积前景理论；精算模型；市场需求

［基金项目］教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“基于大数据的精算统计模型与风险管理问题研究”(16JJD910001)。

［作者简介］王晓军,博士,中国人民大学统计学院院长,中国人民大学风险管理与精算中心主任,教授,博士生导师,研究方向：风险管理与精算，E-mail:xiaojun_wang@ruc.edu.cn；詹家煊,中国人民大学统计学院博士研究生,研究方向：风险管理与精算学，E-mail:zhanjiaxuan@ruc.edu.cn。

Will Tax Deferred Policies Stimulate the Demand for Pension Insurance?—An Analysis Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory

WANG Xiao-jun, ZHAN Jia-xuan

Abstract：In the context of the population ageing,China should construct a multi-level old-age security system and vigorously develop commercial pension insurance. It is widely believed that tax incentives can promote the development of commercial pension insurance effectively. Based on this perception,China began to pilot tax deferred commercial pension insurance. However,some studies have shown that the tax deferred policy may not bring about real demands for   commercial pension insurance. Based on the cumulative prospect theory,this paper integrated into the tax-deferred pension insurance’s actuarial value model the subjective value adjustment,and analyzed individual demand for tax-deferred pension insurance. It is found that the equitable tax-deferred pension insurance and the welfare tax-deferred pension insurance are more attractive than the non-tax-deferred pension insurance. For now the tax benefit created by the tax deferred policies is not large enough to stimulate the demand for pension insurance. It would be so only when the tax incentive rise to a high enough level.

Key words：tax deferral; commercial pension insurance; cumulative prospect theory; actuarial model; market demand