《保险研究》20190802-《海外买方信用风险评级的理论框架和实证分析》（王稳、张阳、梁荣、常亮、杨爽）

［摘   要］开放经济条件下,对海外买方的信用风险进行识别、测度和管理是一个十分重要的理论和实践课题。本文依据信息完备程度对海外买方进行分类,将企业信用风险分析的违约成本方法和技术效率方法相结合,构建了一个新的海外买方信用风险评级模型和框架,以解决不同国家不同信息完备程度的企业信用风险评级的可比性问题,并实现对海外买方信用风险水平的准确测度。针对美国和巴西部分买方的实证研究显示,海外买方信用风险评级模型给出的评级结果能够准确反映各国买方的信用风险状况,帮助出口企业或银行提高防范和管理信用风险的能力和水平。

［关键词］海外买方；信用风险评级；国家风险

［作者简介］王稳,中国出口信用保险公司,对外经济贸易大学,教授、博士生导师,研究方向:保险学，E-mail:wang6966@vip.sina.com；张阳、梁荣、常亮、杨爽,中国出口信用保险公司研究员,博士,研究方向:保险学。

The Theoretical Framework and Empirical Analysis of Overseas Buyers' Credit Risk Rating

WANG Wen,ZHANG Yang,LIANG Rong,CHANG Liang,YANG Shuang

Abstract：Under an open economy,it is a very important theoretical and practical issue to identify,measure and manage the credit risk of overseas buyers. This paper classified overseas buyers according to the degree of completeness of information,combined the default cost method of enterprise credit risk analysis with technical efficiency methods,and constructed a new overseas buyer credit risk rating model and framework to solve the issue of comparability under different information completeness of different countries,and achieved an accurate measurement of the credit risk levels of overseas buyers. Empirical researches on buyers in the United States and Brazil showed that the rating results given by the overseas buyer's credit risk rating model could accurately reflect the credit risk status of buyers in various countries and help exporting companies or banks improve their ability of prevention and management of credit risks.

Key words：overseas buyer;credit risk rating;country risk