《保险研究》20190804-《“弱竞争”的市场模式提升了农业保险发展速度吗？》（牛浩、陈盛伟）

［摘   要］自2007年以来农业保险实现了规模的快速增长,与此同时,多数地区的农业保险市场竞争日益激烈。然而,农业保险的“准公共品”和自然垄断特性决定了其市场并不适宜充分竞争。本文基于全国31个省、直辖市、自治区2001~2017年的面板数据,利用合成控制法测度“弱竞争”型市场模式对农业保险发展速度的影响效果。结论表明:“弱竞争”的安徽模式在保费收入、保险密度、保险深度方面均显著提升了农业保险的发展,年均速度提升水平别达到154.66%、244.94%、156.21%,但2010年后的速度优势开始放缓,整体的速度优势呈现左偏的倒“V”形状；其它4个“弱竞争”地区因为农业保险资源禀赋的欠缺使得结果并不显著。基于上述结论,本文从如何形成、效仿、稳固和激励“弱竞争”市场模式提出四个方面的政策建议。

［关键词］农业保险；市场模式；合成控制法；发展速度

［基金项目］本文是教育部人文社科基金青年项目(18YJC630126)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773067)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(71803103)、山东省社会科学规划青年项目(18DGLJ06)的阶段性成果。

［作者简介］牛浩,山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院)讲师、博士,研究方向: 农业保险,E-mail:niuhao90@126.com；陈盛伟（通讯作者）,山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院)，教授,研究方向: 农业风险管理,E-mail:chensw@sdau.edu.cn。

Is the“Weak Competition”Market Mode Improving the Development Speed of Agricultural Insurance?—New Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method

NIU Hao,CHEN Sheng-wei

Abstract：Agricultural insurance has achieved rapid growth in scale in all regions of our country since 2007;meanwhile,market competition in most regions is becoming increasingly fierce. But its “quasi-public goods”and natural monopoly characteristics determine that agricultural insurance is not suitable for full competition．Based on the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2017,this paper used the synthetic control method to measure the effect of“weak competition”market mode on the development speed of agricultural insurance．The conclusion shows that the“weak competition”Anhui mode has significantly improved the development speed of agricultural insurance in terms of premium income,insurance density and insurance penetration. The annual average speed of the three indicators has increased by 154.66%、244.94% and 156.21% respectively. However,the speed advantage after 2010 began to slow down,and the overall speed advantage showed a left-sided reversed“V”shape. The other four“weak competition”regions did not significantly improve their development speed because of their low insurance resource endowments．Based on the above conclusions,four policy recommendations were proposed on how to form,emulate,stabilize and incentivize the “weak competition” market mode.

Key words：agricultural Insurance;market Mode;synthetic control method;development speed