《保险研究》20190807-《养老金积累制的战略时机选择与路径分析——基于两种老年抚养比交叉点的视角》（王颖、李琦、孙梦珍）

［摘   要］随着老年人口抚养负担的加重,建立养老金积累制成为多国缓解现收现付制压力的出路,而探索建立基金积累制的时机既是亟待解决的现实问题,也是理论研究的难点。本文引入队列老年抚养比概念,分析了其与时期老年抚养比交叉点的理论及实践意义,认为交叉点附近时期老年抚养比代表的现收现付制难以持续,可成为引入基金积累制的适宜时机。在此基础上,计算分析了多个国家的两种老年抚养比及其交叉点,并结合制度实践进行了验证。最后计算了中国的两种老年抚养比及其交叉点。结论认为,多数国家恰于两种老年抚养比的交叉点附近采取措施建立了基金积累制,对中国来说,其交叉点所在的2030年前后可成为引入基金积累制的重要时机,对比他国的衡量指标,中国在实践层面仍需扩大养老保险制度覆盖面,调动个人和企业积累的积极性,丰富基金积累制保险产品的供给并健全基金投资运营及监管制度。

［关键词］基金积累制；队列老年抚养比；时期老年抚养比；时机

［基金项目］国家社科基金项目“人口结构转变的经济影响及其替代因素研究”(编号:18BRK002)。

［作者简介］王颖,北京师范大学政府管理学院教授、博士生导师,E-mail:xjtuwy@sina.com；李琦,北京师范大学政府管理学院博士研究生；孙梦珍,就职于中信银行总行营业部。

Strategic Timing and Path Analysis of Pension Fund Accumulation System—A Perspective Based on the Intersection of Two Old-age Dependency Ratios

WANG Ying,LI Qi,SUN Meng-zhen

Abstract：With the increasing burden of supporting the elderly population,the establishment of the pension accumulation system has become the way out to alleviate the pressure of the pay-as-you-go system for many countries. It is not only a practical problem to be solved to exploring the timing of establishing the fund system,but also a difficulty in theoretical research. This paper introduced the concept of cohort old-age dependency ratio,and analysed the significance of the intersection point between cohort old-age dependency ratio and period old-age dependency ratio. It held that the pay-as-you-go system represented by the period old-age dependency ratio was not sustainable near the intersection point and this was the suitable time to introduce the fund system. On this basis,this paper calculated two kinds of old-age dependency ratios and their intersection points in many countries,then validated these conclusions with practical policies. Finally,it calculated the two kinds of old-age dependency ratios and their intersections in China. The paper argues that it is the right time to establish the fund system near the intersection of the two old-age dependency ratios for many countries. For China,it will become an important opportunity to introduce the fund system around 2030. Compared to other countries,measures should be taken to expand the pension system’s coverage,incentivize individuals and businesses to accumulate,provide diversified insurance products and refine the system of investment and supervision for funds.

Key words：fund accumulation system;cohort old-age dependency ratio;period old-age dependency ratio;timing