《保险研究》20191106-《制度抚养比与养老保险基金地区征缴率的“倒U型”曲线关系——基于地方政府养老保险基金主体责任软预算约束的视角》（金刚、刘钰彤、李永涛）

［摘   要］我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金征缴率偏低。2018年，中共中央印发《深化党和国家机构改革方案》，明确提出“提高社会保险资金征管效率”。本文基于2010～2015年全国31个省级地区面板数据,利用动态面板方法探讨了制度抚养比对养老保险基金地区征缴率的影响效应。实证研究结果表明，养老保险基金地区征缴率随着制度抚养比增加呈现先上升后下降的趋势，二者间呈“倒U型”曲线关系,最大化养老保险基金征缴率的制度抚养比拐点约为0.56～0.65。造成上述曲线关系内在原因可能是地方政府养老保险基金主体责任存在软约束问题,即在养老保险基金收支压力较大时地方政府可以较多使用征缴收入之外资金弥补养老金收支缺口,从而降低了养老保险征缴率。因此,本文认为尽快实行养老保险基金全国统筹、建立中央及直属部门垂直征缴体制和建立养老保险基金地区征缴激励机制是提高养老保险基金征缴率的有效途径。

［关键词］制度抚养比；养老保险基金；征缴率

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金“降低养老保险企业政策缴费率的可行空间与实施路径研究(18BGL195)”。

［作者简介］金刚,辽宁大学人口研究所研究员、博士生导师；刘钰彤,辽宁大学人口研究所博士生；李永涛(通讯作者),辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心副教授。

An Inverse U-shaped Curve between Institutional Dependency Ratio and Local Pension Funds Collection Ratio—Based on the Soft Budget Constraint Perspective of Local Governments on Pension Funds

JIN Gang，LIU Yu-tong，LI Yong-tao

Abstract：Chinese Basic Old-age Insurance for Urban Employee has a relatively low pension fund collection ratio.The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued “Deepening the Reform Plan of the Party and State Institutions” in 2008,indicating clearly to improve the collection efficiency of social insurance funds.Using the System GMM approach with panel data of 31 provinces between 2010 and 2015,this paper analyzed the effect of institutional dependency ratio on local governments’ pension funds collection ratio.The empirical results show that pension funds collection ratio of local governments increases first and then decreases with the increase of institutional dependency ratio.There is an "inverted U-shaped" curve relationship between the two,and is maximized when the dependency ratio is between 0.56-0.65.The inherent reason for the above relationship may be the soft constraint on the local governments as the principal collector of  pension funds,namely,when facing with the pressure of large gaps,local governments can make use of funds from other resources to narrow the gap,thus reduces the collection ratio.The paper suggests that adopting national pooling of the social pension fund and establishing the pension funds collection system managed by central government departments vertically and an incentive system on local governments are the key to improving pension funds collection ratio effectively.

Key words：institutional dependency ratio;pension funds;collection ratio