《保险研究》20191203-《“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家保险业增长的促进作用研究》（严艳、鲁越）

［摘   要］“一带一路”倡议的实施为保险业发展带来了新的机遇和平台,本文采用双重差分方法,基于2010~2018年各国保费增速数据,考察了“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家保险业的影响。研究结果表明“一带一路”倡议显著促进了沿线国家保险业的增长,倡议提出后的数年来影响力稳步提升。进一步研究发现,“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家寿险业和非寿险业均存在显著的促进作用,但沿线伊斯兰教国家的寿险业并未受到显著影响,对其促进作用主要体现在非寿险业；区分经济体类型后发现,“一带一路”倡议主要带动了沿线新兴和发展中经济体保险业的增长,对沿线发达经济体保险业的政策效应不明显。文章从保险业增长的角度为“一带一路”倡议的经济成果提供实证依据,同时为中国保险业高效参与“一带一路”建设提供了一定的启示。

［关键词］一带一路；双重差分；保费增速

［作者简介］严艳,东北财经大学经济学院博士研究生,研究方向:宏观经济分析与预测；鲁越,中国准精算师,现供职于中国人民财产保险股份有限公司大连市分公司。

A Study on the Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Growth of Insurance Industry in the Belt and Road Countries

YAN Yan,LU Yue

Abstract：The implementation of the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative has brought new opportunities and platform for the development of the insurance industry. Based on the premium growth data from 2010 to 2018,the paper used the difference-in-differences method to examine the impacts of the B&R initiative on the insurance industry in the B&R countries. The results show that the B&R initiative has significantly accelerated the growth of the insurance industry of these countries,and the overall effect has shown an expanding trend. Further studies finds that the B&R initiative has apparent effect on both life insurance industry and non-life insurance industry in the B&R countries,but the life insurance industry in the Islamic B&R countries has not been significantly affected,and its promotion effect is mainly reflected in the non-life insurance industry. After distinguishing the types of economies,the paper finds that the B&R initiative has mainly promoted the growth of insurance industry in emerging and developing economies and the effect on the developed economies is inconspicuous. The paper provides empirical evidences for the economic achievements of the B&R initiative from the perspective of insurance growth,and provides some inspiration for China′s insurance industry to participate in the B&R initiatives.

Key words：Belt and Road Initiative;difference-in-differences;premium growth