《保险研究》0220704-《道路交通事故后果与我国交强险奖惩系统的构建与评价》（胡祥、崔巍川、张连增）

［摘   要］为实现车险高质量发展,2020年9月银保监会发布《关于实施车险综合改革的指导意见》,要求提升交强险保障水平,并通过在奖惩系统中增加区域浮动因子提高交强险费率厘定的科学性与公平性。被保险人所引致的道路交通事故后果与其风险水平高度相关,而现行的交强险奖惩系统并未考虑该风险因素。本文根据《公安部关于修订道路交通事故等级划分标准的通知》,将道路交通事故按后果分为轻微、一般和重大事故,结合区域特征与索赔次数等信息,构建一种新的奖惩系统。选取稳态下相对平均保费水平、稳态变化率等指标对新构建的奖惩系统进行评价,并以一组交强险实际赔付数据为例,进行实证分析。研究结果表明考虑道路交通事故后果的奖惩系统可以更好地区分风险,优化交强险后验费率厘定的效果。

［关键词］道路交通事故；交强险；奖惩系统；后验费率

［基金项目］本文获得国家自然科学基金面上项目(71971216)和高等学校学科创新引智基地(B21038)的资助。

［作者简介］胡祥，博士，中南财经政法大学金融学院副教授，研究方向：保险精算与风险管理；崔巍川，中南财经政法大学金融学院硕士研究生，研究方向：保险精算与风险管理；张连增，博士，南开大学金融学院教授，研究方向：风险管理与非寿险精算。

The Consequences of Road Traffic Accidents and the Construction and Evaluation of Bonus-Malus System for Compulsory Traffic Liability Insurance

HU Xiang,CUI Wei-chuan,ZHANG Lian-zeng

Abstract：In order to achieve the high-quality development of automobile insurance,in September 2020,the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the Comprehensive Reform of Automobile Insurance,which required to lift the protection level of the compulsory traffic liability insurance and improve the scientificalness and fairness of its premium rating by adding regional floating factors to the bonus-malus system.The consequences of road traffic accidents caused by the insured are highly correlated with their risk levels,but the current bonus-malus system does not take this risk factor into account.According to the Notice of the Ministry of Public Security on Revising the Criteria for Classifying Road Traffic Accidents,this paper divided road traffic accidents into minor,general and major accidents according to the consequences,and built a new bonus-malus system in combination with regional characteristics and the number of claims.The paper selected indicators such as the relative average premium level and steady-state change rate under steady state to evaluate the newly constructed bonus-malus system,and took a set of actual compensation data of compulsory traffic liability insurance as an example to conduct empirical analysis.The results show that the bonus-malus system that considers the consequences of road traffic accidents can better distinguish risks and optimize the effect of posterior premium rating of the compulsory traffic liability insurance.

Key words：road traffic accident;compulsory traffic liability insurance;Bonus-malus system;posterior rating