《保险研究》20230106-《区域差异视角下的我国企业职工养老保险替代率缺口及解决路径探寻》（费清、刘方涛、张蕊、田梁裕、张路）

［摘   要］随着人口老龄化程度的加深，我国企业职工基本养老保险在保障能力承压的同时，也面临着替代率和待遇给付水平的区域差异问题。基于此，本文从企业职工养老保险替代率的区域差异出发，通过人口预测和模型构建，测算了2025~2050年全国省级地区的职工养老保险待遇缺口规模和趋势，以及2020年东部地区72座城市的替代率和待遇缺口情况。测算结果表明，受平均工资水平、基本养老保险待遇水平、退休职工人数等因素的影响，在给定的目标替代率下，养老保险替代率和待遇缺口均呈现出明显的区域差异。在中长期，基于工资增速高于基本养老保险待遇增速的假设，各地区平均替代率持续降低，待遇缺口呈指数化增长趋势，区域间差异也不断扩大。在考虑第二支柱补充和渐进式延迟退休的基础上，中长期待遇缺口虽有所缓解，但缺口的绝对值仍很大，需要加快发展第三支柱予以补充。据此，本文建议在企业职工基本养老保险全国统筹的实施中，应注意替代率和待遇缺口的区域差异，在待遇调整幅度、基金调剂等方面适当倾斜；同时，积极构建多层次养老保障体系，提升养老基金的积累规模，扩大养老保险第二、三支柱覆盖范围。

［关键词］养老保险；替代率；区域差异；渐进式延迟退休

［基金项目］中国保险学会2022年度课题研究项目：商业养老保险在养老第三支柱中的功能定位及发展规律探寻——基于多国比较研究（ISCKT2022-N-1-09）。

［作者简介］费清，南开大学经济学博士，供职于泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部；刘方涛（通讯作者），香港城市大学统计学博士，供职于泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部；张蕊，供职于泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部；田梁裕；供职于泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部；张路，供职于泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部。

The Replacement Rate Gap of the Basic Pension Insurance for Employees from the Perspective of Regional Differences and An Exploration on the Path of Solution

FEI Qing,LIU Fang-tao,ZHANG Rui,TIAN Liang-yu,ZHANG Lu

Abstract：At present,with the deepening of the population aging,the basic pension insurance for employees in China is facing regional differences in the replacement rate and benefit level while the protection capacity is under pressure.Based on this,and proceeding from the regional differences in the replacement rates of the basic pension insurance for employees,this paper calculates the scale and trend of the benefit gap at the provincial level from 2025 to 2050 and the replacement rates and benefit gaps of 72 cities in eastern China in 2020 through population prediction and model construction.The results show that under the given replacement rate target,the replacement rate and benefit gap of the basic pension insurance for employees show obvious regional differences due to the influences of the average wage level,the basic pension insurance benefit level,the number of retired employees and other factors.In the medium and long term,based on the assumption that the growth of wages is higher than the growth of basic pension insurance benefits,the average replacement rate of each region continues to decrease,the benefit gap shows an exponential growth trend,and the regional differences continue to expand.Considering the supplement of the second pillar and the progressive delayed retirement,the benefit gap can be alleviated in the medium and long term,but the absolute size of the gap is still very large,therefore the development of the third pillar should be accelerated.Based on the above findings,this paper suggests that in the implementation of the national pooling of basic pension insurance for employees,attention should be paid to the regional differences in the replacement rate and the benefit gap,and appropriate policy support should be considered on the benefit adjustment range and funding adjustment.At the same time,we should proactively build a multi-level pension security system,enlarge the accumulation scale of pension funds,and expand the coverage of the second and third pillars of pension insurance.

Key words：pension insurance;replacement rate;regional differences;progressive delayed retirement