《保险研究》20230103-《PPP地震巨灾保险风险分配模式的比较与选择》（刘玮、孙双琳）

［摘   要］本文旨在研究公私合作(Public-Private Partnership PPP)框架下政府与保险机构在地震巨灾保险中的风险与风险分配机制。首先对PPP地震巨灾保险全生命周期公私共担风险进行识别和分析，需要进行分配的主要是市场需求风险和偿付能力风险。之后在风险分配原则的指导下，明确各阶段不同类型风险的责任主体，并构建风险分配模型。最后通过蒙特卡洛仿真模拟，对不同风险分配比例的三种市场需求风险分配模式和三种偿付能力风险分配模式进行比较与选择。研究表明，通过财政补贴地震巨灾保险保费的方式，政府可以承担部分市场需求风险，提高保险覆盖率。承保地震灾害损失的偿付能力风险主要交由商业保险和再保险机构负担，超出市场化机制责任分层和地震巨灾基金支持的重大地震灾害损失由政府承担，能够促进公私长期稳定合作，推进完善地震巨灾保险制度的较优模式，本文拓展了PPP模式风险分配框架在地震巨灾保险中的应用，为地震巨灾保险模式选择提供新的理论支撑。

［关键词］PPP地震巨灾保险；风险分配；市场需求风险；偿付能力风险

［基金项目］教育部规划基金：基于改善财政涉灾资金缺口的财政巨灾指数保险研究（项目编号:21YJA790041）。

［作者简介］刘玮，南开大学金融学院教授、博士生导师，南开大学灾害风险管理与巨灾保险研究中心主任；孙双琳，南开大学金融学院保险专业博士研究生。

The Comparison and Selection of Risk Allocation Mechanism for China PPP Earthquake Insurance Program

LIU Wei,SUN Shuang-lin

Abstract：This paper aims to clarify the risk factors and risk allocation mechanism in public and private partnership (PPP) of the earthquake catastrophe insurance program.First,based on the identification and analysis of the risk factors of the whole life cycle of PPP earthquake insurance,the risks to be shared by governments and insurers are market demand risks and insolvency risks.Second,guided by the principle of risk allocation,this paper specifies the evaluation criteria of government and insurers.Finally,through Monte Carlo simulation,this paper compares and selects from three market demand risk allocation models and three solvency risk allocation models designed with different risk sharing ratios.This research shows that the government can bear part of the market demand risk by subsidizing the earthquake catastrophe insurance premiums,and increases the coverage of the insurance.Insolvency risk related to earthquake catastrophe losses can be allocated to insurance and reinsurance institutions,and the government bears the losses above the market sectors and earthquake funds,which is a better model to promote long-term public-private cooperation.This paper expands the application of PPP risk allocation framework in earthquake catastrophe insurance,and provides new theoretical support for the selection of earthquake catastrophe insurance program.

Key words：PPP earthquake catastrophe insurance;risk allocation;market demand risk;insolvency risk