《保险研究》20230207-《我国个税递延型商业养老保险政策模拟研究》（李鹏、张子欣）

［摘   要］本文利用养老金替代率等指标,构建养老保障水平测算模型,对我国个税递延型养老保险的保障水平进行定量分析。研究发现,现有政策条件下,EET模式和TEE模式的个税递延型养老保险保障水平都不高,不同收入、不同性别群体的养老保障水平有较大差异。两种模式的个税递延型养老保险总替代率和净替代率随收入的提高逐渐降低,总相对水平和净相对水平随收入的提高而上升；男性的养老保障水平高于女性；对中等收入和较高收入群体而言,TEE模式的个税递延型养老保险保障水平高于EET模式,高收入群体EET模式的个税递延型养老保险保障水平更高,且收入越高,EET模式和TEE模式间养老保障水平的差异越小。政策调整模拟结果表明,提高缴费上限和领取年龄、降低领取税率有助于提升个税递延型养老保险的保障水平。因此,应继续完善顶层设计,优化第三支柱个人养老金发展方案,进一步扩大覆盖面,强化税收优惠的激励作用,持续推进我国第三支柱个人养老金发展。

［关键词］个税递延型养老保险；替代率；税收优惠

［基金项目］中国博士后科学基金项目（2021M703612）。

［作者简介］李鹏，经济学博士，中国银保监会博士后科研工作站、清华大学五道口金融学院博士后流动站博士后；张子欣，中国人民人寿保险股份有限公司职员。

A Research on the Simulation of Tax-Deferred Individual Commercial Pension Insurance

LI Peng,ZHANG Zi-xin

Abstract：Using the pension replacement rate and other indicators,this paper constructs an actuarial model to project the protection level of pension insurance,and quantitatively analyzes the protection level of the tax-deferred individual commercial pension insurance in China.We find that both the EET and TEE models of the current tax-deferred pension insurance have a relatively low protection level,and the pension level varies greatly with income and gender.The gross replacement rate and net replacement rate of the tax-deferred pension insurance decrease with the increase in income level,and the gross relative level and the net relative level increase with the increase in income level.The protection level of males is higher compared to that of females.For middle-income and upper middle-income groups,the tax-deferred pension′s protection level of the TEE type is higher than that of the EET.For the high-income group,the EET′s protection level is higher compared to the TEE,and the higher the income,the protection difference between the EET model and the TEE model the smaller.The simulation results of policy adjustment show that raising the contribution upper limit and the pensionable age and reducing the tax rate on pension benefit will improve the protection level of the tax-deferred pension insurance.Therefore,policymakers should strengthen the top-level design and the tax incentive effect,and continue to promote the development of the third pillar pension system in China.

Key words：tax-deferred pension insurance;replacement rate;tax incentives