《保险研究》20230403-《中国农业保险市场韧性测度及影响因素分析：基于地方政府“话语权”视角》（魏超、陈盛伟、牛浩、李政）

［摘   要］面对复杂的市场外部环境和内部扰动因素，如何提升市场韧性，实现“稳定、增长、转型”，是我国农业保险高质量发展面临的重要课题。本文基于我国2008~2020年31个省份的面板数据，依据“抵抗-恢复-转型”的逻辑测算了农险市场韧性，并借助系统GMM估计探讨了地方政府“话语权”对农险市场韧性的影响效果及作用机理。结果表明：我国农险市场韧性差异显著，粮食主产区要高于非粮食主产区；全国农险市场韧性整体上波动上升，主要分为三个发展阶段；地方政府“话语权”显著抑制了农险市场韧性水平的提升但影响存在明显的结构异质性，地方财政压力在其中发挥了正向调节效应。本文建议要明确地方政府干预的合理阈值区间，建立双轨监督机制；构建保费补贴绩效考核制度，灵活高效拨付资金；完善农业保险遴选机制，促进农险市场适度竞争。

［关键词］农业保险市场韧性；地方政府“话语权”；PSR模型；地方财政压力；市场竞争

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目（71773067）、国家自然科学基金青年项目（71803103）。

［作者简介］魏超，山东农业大学经济管理学院（商学院）博士研究生，研究方向：农业保险；陈盛伟，山东理工大学副校长、教授，研究方向：农业风险管理与农业保险；牛浩，山东农业大学经济管理学院（商学院）副教授，研究方向：农业保险；李政，山东农业大学经济管理学院（商学院）讲师，研究方向：农业保险。

The Measurement of the Resilience of China′s Agricultural Insurance Market and the Analysis of Its Influencing Factors:Based on the Perspective of Local Government′s "Right of Speech"

WEI Chao,CHEN Sheng-wei,NIU Hao,LI Zheng

Abstract：China′s agricultural insurance market is facing complex external market environments and internal disturbance factors.How to improve market resilience and achieve "stability,growth,and transformation" is an important issue for achieving high-quality development of China′s agricultural insurance market.Based on panel data from  China′s 31 provinces from 2008 to 2020,this paper measures the resilience of the agricultural insurance market using the logic of "resistance- recovery-transformation",and explores the impact and mechanism of local government′s "right of speech" on the resilience of the agricultural insurance market using systematic GMM estimates.The results show that there are significant differences in the resilience of China′s agricultural insurance market,with major grain producing regions being higher than non-major grain producing regions.The overall resilience of the national agricultural insurance market fluctuates upwards,which can be mainly divided into three stages of development.The "right of speech" of local governments significantly inhibits the improvement of the resilience level of the agricultural insurance market,but there is obvious structural heterogeneity in the impacts.Local fiscal pressure has a positive regulatory effect.The paper proposes to clarify the reasonable threshold range for local government intervention,establish a dual track supervision mechanism,set up a performance evaluation system for premium subsidies,allocate funds flexibly and efficiently,and improve the selection mechanism for agricultural insurance,thus promoting appropriate competition in the agricultural insurance market.

Key words：resilience of agricultural insurance market；local government′s "right of speech"；PSR model；local fiscal pressure；market competition