《保险研究》20231204-《养老财富储备风险有多高？——基于10个大中型城市中产人群的调查分析》（冯扬、房连泉）

［摘   要］随着我国人口老龄化程度的加深，养老财富储备不足带来的退休风险已成为全社会关心的热点话题。健全多层次社会保障体系，亟需引导居民稳步增加养老财富储备，为“老有所养”筑牢经济基础。本文基于包括养老金、金融资产和房产的多层次养老财富视角，对我国10个大中型城市中产人群的养老财富储备风险进行了量化估计。测算结果显示，典型个体的窄口径、中口径和宽口径养老财富储备风险指数分别为43.6%、23.3%和10.8%，说明总体的养老风险水平仍然较高。进一步的敏感性分析表明，提高社会保险缴费密度、年金和商业保险参与率、储蓄率，以及实施延迟退休等措施，对降低养老风险有显著的积极作用。本文结论为发展多层次、多支柱社会保障体系，拓宽养老财富储备资产来源，解决“未富先老”“未备先老”问题提供了经验参考。

［关键词］养老财富储备；风险指数；养老金；金融资产；房产

［基金项目］本研究受到国家社会科学基金重点项目（20AGL027）资助。本文数据来源于中国社会科学院世界社保研究中心与腾讯、友邦保险联合开展的调查项目，在写作过程中得到郑秉文、齐传钧、张盈华、高庆波、周佳玲等人的帮助，在此一并表示感谢。

［作者简介］冯扬，中国社会科学院社会发展战略研究院博士后；房连泉（通讯作者），中国社会科学院社会发展战略研究院研究员。

How High is Retirement Wealth Reserve Risk?—Based on the Survey Analysis on Middle Class in 10 Large and Medium Cities

FENG Yang,FANG Lian-quan

Abstract：With the deepening of China’s population aging,the risk brought by insufficient retirement wealth reserves has become a hot topic of concern of the society.In order to improve the multi-tiered social security system,there is an urgent need to guide residents to increase their retirement wealth reserves steadily,so as to build a solid economic foundation for elderly care.Based on a multi-level retirement wealth perspective including pensions,financial assets and real estate,this paper quantitatively estimates the retirement wealth reserve risk of middle class in 10 large and medium cities in China.The results show that the narrow,medium and wide caliber retirement wealth reserve risk indices for the typical individual are 43.6%,23.3%and 10.8% respectively,which indicates that the overall level of retirement risk is still high.Further sensitivity analyses present that increasing social insurance payment density,annuity and commercial insurance participation rates,saving rate and postponing retirement age have a significant positive effect on reducing retirement risk.The conclusions provide references for developing multi-tiered and multi-pillared social security system,broadening the source of assets of retirement wealth reserves,and solving the problem of aging before getting rich or enough reserve.

Key words：retirement wealth reserves;risk indices;pension;financial asset;real estate